In February, real estate markets across Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, and Victoria exhibited signs of recovery, marked by consecutive months of sales growth. Sellers began to actively participate, leading to a shift towards seller's markets and increased sales-to-listings ratios. Despite varied price trends, all three regions demonstrated positive momentum, hinting at a more optimistic outlook as they enter the Spring market.

Greater Vancouver 

In Greater Vancouver, the housing market continued to recover, with sales momentum from January to February. This resulted in a second month of increased sales activity, with 2,070 properties sold. However, this is still 23.3% lower than the 10-year February average of 2,699 sales.

February saw an average level of new listings, indicating more sellers are entering the market. There was a significant 34.6% increase in new listings from the previous month, totalling 4,560. By the end of February, there were 9,634 active listings available.

Despite more listings being added, the market has shifted from balanced to favouring sellers, driven by demand keeping up with the growing supply. The overall sales-to-listings ratio was 22.4%. 

When looking at specific types of homes, townhomes had a ratio of 31.3%, and condominiums were at 25.9%, highlighting the stronger demand in these segments.

The average price for all types of residential properties in the area is now $1,183,000. This is a 1.9% increase from the previous month but still 6.3% below the peak prices seen in April 2022.

Fraser Valley Market

In February, the Fraser Valley's resale housing market saw an increase in sales, though it still lagged behind the long-term averages. This uptick comes as inflation data improves, and there's anticipation for interest rate cuts, encouraging some hesitant buyers to re-enter the market. 

The region recorded 1,235 property sales in February, a 32% increase from January but still 21% below the 10-year average. This rise in sales is partly due to the seasonal upturn as we enter the spring market. Active listings in February rose to 5,561, a 14% increase from January and a 26% rise from the same time last year. 

The market has shifted from the balanced conditions usually seen in the winter to a seller's market, as evidenced by a sales-to-listings ratio of 22% in February. 

Additionally, the average time it takes to sell a home decreased significantly from 28 days in January to just 13 days in February, indicating a growing optimism and faster-paced transactions.

The average price for homes, as measured by the MLS® HPI benchmark, increased by 0.9% month-over-month to $994,600. This ends a six-month trend of declining prices. Year-over-year, home values have increased by 4.8%, although they are still 16.9% below the peak market values observed in March 2022.

As a keen observer of the real estate market, I've always believed in the importance of understanding the interplay of various factors that influence our industry. The coming year, 2024, is no exception, and it promises to be a fascinating period for real estate, influenced by economic conditions, government policies, and evolving market trends. Let's delve into some expert predictions and analyses to forecast what might be in store for us this year.

Michael Geller's Vision for 2024

Michael Geller, a figure with immense experience spanning five decades in various realms of real estate, including development, consulting, and architectural planning, has become a notable voice in predicting and influencing housing policy changes. His annual holiday card, a compilation of housing ideas and policy recommendations, has been a significant influencer in the realm of housing policy, with several of his past suggestions becoming provincial legislation in 2023.

For 2024, Geller's focus seems to be on continuing to streamline housing policies. He supports the Province's new fixed amenity cost charges, which aim to bring certainty to projects, though he notes that costs in Vancouver remain higher than other major cities. Geller advocates for a reevaluation of the approach to generating municipal revenues through building density and suggests a two-tier system for taxing residential properties, favouring lower rates for multi-family units. Additionally, he foresees a rise in intergenerational home sharing, supported by platforms like Common.com and HomeSharingBC.ca, and recommends policies to facilitate manufactured housing and protect character houses.

Royal LePage’s Market Survey and Cressey Development Group's Outlook

The Royal LePage annual market survey forecasts a modest year-over-year increase for Vancouver's real estate market, with different projections for detached houses and condos. This aligns with the view of Hani Lammam from Cressey Development Group, who expects the market to remain stable but not necessarily see significant price increases.

Lammam predicts a quiet first half of the year, with activity picking up later. He believes unique real estate projects will attract more interest compared to generic ones, emphasizing the role of investors in the market.

My Perspective as a Realtor

Buyers and sellers in 2024 should focus on prime interest rates as a guide. Historical data suggests the correlation between the Bank of Canada rate and property prices. When the prime rate is around 3% or lower, the market experiences significant returns, while a rate above 6% tends to flatten or negatively impact returns. With the current prime rate at 7.2%, Yan's insights could be crucial for understanding market dynamics this year.

My advice to clients in 2024 is to stay informed and adaptable. The market this year is likely to be influenced by a mix of policy changes, economic conditions, and evolving consumer preferences. For sellers, it's crucial to understand the impact of interest rates and market trends on property values. For buyers, especially first-time homebuyers and investors, exploring options like multi-family units and considering the long-term implications of interest rates will be key.

In conclusion, while the real estate market of 2024 presents its challenges, it also offers opportunities for those who navigate it with knowledge and foresight. As your realtor, I am here to guide you through this dynamic landscape, ensuring your real estate decisions are informed, strategic, and aligned with your goals. Let's embark on this journey together, harnessing the potential of the 2024 real estate market.